Global growth is receding but (US) consumer confidence remains strong and as long as corporates’ capital expenditures do not further deteriorate, the likelihood for a near-term recession in the US or China is low.
US GDP growth is largely supported by consumer spending. Further rate cuts and politics to warm up for the presidential elections in November 2020, should keep economic momentum positive. Europe is the weak link and depends too much on the global manufacturing cycle. Monetary policy is ultra-loose and reaching its limits. To stimulate growth, Europe has to increase fiscal spending.
The additional tariffs will impose further pain on China and the industrial sector faces serious headwinds. That said, the government has enough ammunition to fight a serious downturn.
The US-China trade war has changed in a sense that the Trump administration has become much more confrontational and wants to decouple the US from the Chinese economy.
