Global manufacturing is likely to see a moderate rebound over the next 3-6 months. Hence, a near term recession is highly unlikely.
US GDP growth decelerates in 2020. However, consumer spending, driven by low inflation, low interest rates and full employment continues to drive the cycle.
Europe grows below trend, but finally some political risks are receding and should support its manufacturing base. Europe could even surprise if external and domestic conditions align.
China’s GDP growth is expected to slow slightly bellow 6%. Compared to previous slowdowns, the Chinese government has not allowed a major reacceleration in credit growth. Instead, fiscal policy has been loosened significantly.
The two wildcards in 2020 are, first, the US presidential election and, second, progress on the US/China Phase-2 trade negotiations.
