Quarterly Investment Letters

The US economy showed resilience, with 2.8% GDP growth driven by robust consumer spending and AI investments, despite vulnerabilities from subdued business and government expenditures. Donald Trump’s presidential victory prompted market shifts, driving gains in

A weaker US labour market causes downward pressure on wage growth, which softens private consumption and dampens the econom-ic outlook. Inflation moderated in the US and Europe. In August, disappointing US jobs figures and tightening

The global economy is demonstrating resilience, especially for the US, China, and emerging markets. The risk of a global recession has diminished, with emerging markets outperforming advanced economies. Equity markets hit new highs in Q2

Core economies sustained late-stage expansion, while China pursued policy adjustments aimed at stimulating economic growth. Market optimism drove the S&P 500 to record highs, supported by robust economic indicators, including a strong job report and

The economy faces a slowdown with rising capital costs, yet resilient consumers and government support avert an imminent recession. Markets expect a “soft landing” economic cooling. Market sentiment pivoted favourably as the perception of inflation

The economic outlook is soft, but not disastrous. US economy demonstrates strong resilience, highlighted by robust labour market conditions, and documented by a solid 2.4% annualized real GDP growth rate in Q2. There are no

Despite the negative turn in the economic cycle, the presence of a resilient consumer base and favourable government policies have mitigated the risk of an immediate recession and minimized the potential for a severe economic

The economic environment presents challenges for investors as market expectations diverge from reality. Despite positive signs in Europe and China, stubborn inflation, deteriorating quarterly dynamics in the US and stagnant eurozone growth add to the

The economic cycle has turned negative, driven by increased inflationary forces and geopolitical issues. The US economy could experience a period of stagflation, the eurozone most likely a mild recession, and China will be held

The outlook for the global economy is deteriorating. Inflation is peaking but remains at a structurally higher level, the labor market is likely to stay relatively robust, there are no signs of a ceasefire in

Rising inflation pressures forced central banks around the world to reverse the loose monetary policy. A faster-than-expected tightening of the financial conditions weighs on the global economy. Increasing uncertainty about a possible recession in late

Inflation pressure is mounting and we deal with a mature business cycle with the risk of entering into a period of stagflation. In the short-term, economic downside risks are rising. Central banks weigh price stability

Central banks will likely remain cautious about tightening too quickly and global GDP growth is expected to reach 4.4% in 2022. While the new Omicron variant is highly contagious and should delay the recovery process

Global GDP growth is reaching peak levels and inflationary pressures are building. After outstanding returns in equities and bonds, investors will have to adjust their long-term return expectations if the principle of “mean reversion” holds

Governments and central banks remain commit-ted to generous stimulus measures. This in combination with consumer pent-up demand and a strong wave of capital expenditures form a robust backdrop for the global economy. GDP growth in

The world is reaching an inflection point in defeating the pandemic, resulting in a possible regime change in inflation, a steepening of the yield curve, equity sector rotation and possibly a revival of commodity prices.

Investors seem to be living in the best of all worlds. No central bank or government wants to remove economic support too quickly and monetary policy will remain very stimulative. Joe Biden won the US

Over the next 3-6 months we expect global economic growth to be reasonable, based on the outlook for a viable vaccine, central banks’ ultra-loose monetary policy and governments’ fiscal stimulus measures reaching over USD 13

The Covid-19 pandemic has led to drastic actions around the world. Never before in history has it been so easy for Western governments to increase fiscal expenditures through debt. All of this supported by central

With a global recession now a certainty, government bond yields remain very low and offer no long-term investment perspective, but help diversifying the portfolio as of now. Credit spreads in some market segments have reached extreme levels and led

Global manufacturing is likely to see a moderate rebound over the next 3-6 months. Hence, a near term recession is highly unlikely. US GDP growth decelerates in 2020. However, consumer spending, driven by low inflation,

Global growth is receding but (US) consumer confidence remains strong and as long as corporates’ capital expenditures do not further deteriorate, the likelihood for a near-term recession in the US or China is low. US

The US Fed is the dog that wags the tail. US Treasury futures forecast two rate cuts this year, which will prolong the economic cycle and prevent the USD from further strengthening. US GDP growth

The US Fed and the European Central Bank kick the can further down the road and keep interest rates lower for longer. US GDP growth continues to slow but a sudden recession is not on

Slowing economic growth in the U.S. and Europe is a fact. We admit the risk, that the current sharp market sell-off could front-run the real economy and increase the speed of an economic softening. The

Within the next 6 to 9 months we do not expect a recession in the US nor Europe. Growth in the US is primarily driven by personal consumption and European growth rates have become more

We do not expect a recession in the U.S. and in Europe for the next 6 to 9 months. U.S. tax cuts and increased government spending will keep the U.S. economy relatively strong. Chinese growth

The first months of 2018 experienced a fast comeback of volatility. Almost all traditional asset classes performed negatively in Q1-2018, putting alternative strategies back in the spotlight to diversify and optimize future performance expectations. Economic

Global growth momentum to accelerate and to slightly surpass pace of 2017 of 3.6% (estimate) GDP growth. U.S. tax cuts might add up to 0.5% of U.S. GDP growth. China’s GDP growth is expected to

Continued global growth recovery while inflation remains surprisingly low. Equity markets are still leading the way in an environment where all risky assets have done very well since the beginning of the year. Investment Grade

Global growth is set for a moderate rebound, both in developed and emerging economies. Risks to global growth are linked to China, where financial bubbles are forming, and to geopolitics, where North Korea is the

The first four months of the year were very positive for risky assets as investors focused on the positive impacts resulting from the U.S. upcoming pro-growth policies. Global equities posted a gain of +7.9% during

We are witnessing the transition from monetary stimulus to fiscal stimulus (tax cuts, infrastructure spending) and from disinflation to relation. The rise of populism in the Developed Markets is finally forcing governments to adopt more pro-growth

Markets showed high levels of complacency brushing aside the negative Brexit vote consequences as all risky assets quickly recouped their losses. Global growth has softened but shows signs of stabilization. US elections dominate market sentiment

Global growth will only be moderately affected by Brexit. In Europe, where there will be months of uncertainty affecting business and consumer sentiment, we expect a larger impact. Interest rate levels of government bonds have

Within the first 2 months of the year, there was a self-feeding panic about the global economy slowing down and a potential recession looming in the US. The equity markets were down severely (S&P500 –13%

Ignoring unpredictable exogenous shocks, we expect that economic growth will be positive but moderate. Although market sentiment is negatively biased we do not see the typical signals of an impending recession. For instance there is

As stated in the previous letter, global growth remains heavily affected by the antagonistic forces of deflationary impulses (energy, commodities), announced monetary tightening (the Fed and Bank of England) and continued monetary stimulus (ECB, Bank

Global growth is happening but it remains sluggish. The economic impact of the gigantic QE measures, at global level, remain underwhelming. Please note that in Q1 2015 alone, more than 20 central banks lowered their

Finally, the US will be in the lead to promote economic growth. The majority of other countries are lagging behind. This economic mismatch brings the synchronicity of expansive monetary policies amongst the big players to

The key instrument to fix the current financial and economic crises is global growth. The hopes projected into the recovery of the economy were dented in September due to somewhat U.S. weak data. We believe,