Since September 2020, the FED’s policy allows for a period of inflation over their 2% target: “[…]the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time[…]”, which is indicating that they are more concerned about the prospect of too little inflation, rather than too much.
So, what temporary inflation level will be accepted by the FED without hiking? The current inflation (Headline PCE) is 1.3%. The FED could allow inflation to rise to 2.5% (Required Inflation) for some time to bring long-term average inflation back to 2%. Currently, the expected future inflation (5y5y forward swap) is 2.4%. This illustrates that a large part of the Required Inflation is already priced in.
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